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No More Marshall; So What Now?

April 14, 2010

Brandon Marshall is officially no longer a member of Broncos nation. Today the Broncos officially announced the trade of Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins, in exchange for two second round picks, one in the upcoming 2010 draft, and one in the 2011 draft. I could say a million things about this trade, many good, many bad. One thing I will not say is the classic “I have been a fan of the Broncos for X amount of years, and never have I seen anything this stupid.”

That is just ridiculous. Maybe the trade of Marshall was misguided, but I will say this: We received fair compensation for Marshall. Let me explain why. Assume for a moment that the Dolphins second round pick will be the same next year as it is this year, the 43rd pick overall.

This is unlikely, but the best indicator we can use to judge this trade right now. On the trade value chart, as you can see below, the 43rd overall pick in the draft is worth 470 points. Multiply that by two and you are at 940. This would mean that our pick is only 10 points less in value than the 17th overall pick in the draft, and 50 points more than the 18th. It is the equivalent of a top 20 pick, which for troubled receivers these days, is very fair.

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

Last year when Jay Cutler was traded, I predicted that Kyle Orton with the players surrounding him, would have a better season. I was right. This year though, I will take the other route. While I think this is fair compensation, Brandon Marshall will be extremely successful in Miami. I also think that he will be successful in his future cities. He is baby T.O, isn’t he?

Marshall like Terrell Owens and other diva receivers will probably jump around teams for the rest of his career. It may be a very successful career, but I just don’t see him set with one team for the rest of his time in the NFL. How much longer before he becomes upset with Bill Parcells, Tony Sparano and the rest of the Dolphins brass?

Marshall may have changed, but I have a hard time imagining him keeping out of trouble in a place like Miami. No offense to any of my Florida based Broncos fans.

Now, we need to focus on something that is a bit more important than Marshall leaving. What we will do to replace him? Remember how I said he is baby T.O? I know McDaniels likes team first players, but I find it hard to believe that McDaniels won’t at least dip his feet into the water, and consider bringing Owens to play for Denver. He is very talented, and would be a good stop-gap between receivers for a year.

There is going to be a great wide receiver class next year including A.J Green, Michael Floyd and Juilio Jones, so the front office might consider waiting a year and dealing with Owens in between. Many would be against this scenario, but it is one we shouldn’t throw out just yet.

More likely though, the Broncos will spend one of their top picks on a Wide Receiver. I would be shocked if they went after Dez Bryant. His character issues are tremendous.

It is rumored he has been late to a ridiculous amount of practices and even games! How on earth do you expect us to draft a player like him with such a pivotal pick?

We won’t. Instead, we will probably spend Miami’s pick on one. I could see us going for either one of two receivers: Damian Williams of USC or Arrelious Benn of Illinois. My personal choice would be Williams who I think is the best receiver in the draft hands down, but the Broncos might be swept of their feet by the Marshall-esque playing style of Arrelious Benn. He’s a deadly big body possession receiver.

Both players have been brought in for private visits, and I heard that they both went extremely well. In fact, it may come down to whoever is available. Like I said though, if it comes down to the two of them, the Broncos would be best advised to take the more pro ready Damian Williams. It is much more likely, that he can make an immediate impact, because of his sharp route running.

There are plenty of choices for the Broncos, and I hope we will see them put together a successful 2010 NFL Draft. Personally, I will miss Marshall, but it was probably time for the two sides to separate.

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3 Comments
  1. April 14, 2010 4:25 PM

    I’ll miss Marshall, and wish him well. And I agree about Dez, Denver shouldn’t go after him, and using T.O. as a stop-gab sounds good to me. Great post Garrett

  2. Stuart Fraass permalink
    April 16, 2010 3:47 PM

    LOVE your site! Its obvious you do your research and not just cut and paste bad ESPN articles. I agree with everything you said, and expect the Broncos to trade down in the first round. Hopefully Josh did a little more homework this year, as I am still sick about him giving away their first round pick this year.

    • April 18, 2010 4:24 PM

      Thank you very much! I too am sick to my stomach over not having that first round pick. ESPECIALLY with such a talented class. One interesting point we forget sometimes, is that we did not have regular season scouting under McDaniels, something very undervalued. This year though, we have that scouting and will hopefully have a bit more success. I am really excited!

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